VISAKHAPATNAM — A deep depression over the Bay of Bengal strengthened into Cyclonic Storm Arnab early on Monday and is forecast to come ashore in Andhra Pradesh as a very severe cyclonic storm on Wednesday morning, the India Meteorological Department said, as the state ordered its fishing fleet back to harbour and put rescue teams on standby.

The storm is expected to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam by the forenoon of 28 October with sustained winds of 115-125 km/h and gusts of up to 140 km/h, the IMD's Bhubaneswar centre said in its bulletin.

The forecast puts the Godavari delta districts in the path of the second cyclone to strike this coast in as many Octobers. The IMD has issued a red cyclone warning for Andhra Pradesh and the adjoining south Odisha coast, with heavy to very heavy rain expected across north Andhra and the central coastal districts on Tuesday and Wednesday.

At 5.30 am on Monday the system was centred over the east-central Bay of Bengal, about 650 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 730 km east-southeast of Kakinada and 610 km southeast of Gopalpur in Odisha, the IMD said. It was moving almost due west at about 15 km/h.

Forecasters expect it to become a severe cyclonic storm by midnight on Monday and a very severe cyclonic storm on Tuesday, with strong winds reaching coastal areas from Tuesday morning. After landfall the storm is expected to track north and weaken.

Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has put officials on high alert and told them to prepare at every level to limit the storm's damage, ANI reported. He also told district administrations to open control rooms and keep residents informed.

IANS reported that Naidu went through plans on Sunday for evacuating people from vulnerable areas, opening relief centres and arranging food, drinking water, medical care and power restoration. M9 News said the meeting brought in officials from 10 departments and district collectors, that power restoration crews were being positioned in advance, and that cyclone bulletins would be issued every four hours.

The Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority said the next three days would be extremely critical, and its managing director, Prakhar Jain, urged residents to follow safety advice, according to IANS. Ten National Disaster Response Force teams and 11 State Disaster Response Force teams are being deployed, the agency reported.

Jain told The Hindu on Sunday that people living in low-lying areas and in kutcha houses in the coastal districts from Bapatla to Vizianagaram would be moved to shelters. The districts he expected to feel the storm were Bapatla, Krishna, West Godavari, Dr B. R. Ambedkar Konaseema, Kakinada, Anakapalli, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram and Srikakulam, the newspaper reported.

In Kakinada, more than 4,800 boats that fish the Bay of Bengal had returned and anchored at the fishing harbour and other landing centres by Monday, District Fisheries Officer V. Krishna Rao told The Hindu. Not every crew heeded the advisory: on Sunday evening six boats, carrying four men each, put to sea, and the Coast Guard station at Kakinada had to track them and order them home, he said.

Marine fishing has been suspended for three days, and officials in East Godavari and Dr B. R. Ambedkar Konaseema districts have halted fishing on the Godavari river, The Hindu said. Tourist boating to the Papikonda hills has also been stopped on the orders of P. Narendra Pradal, the Integrated Tribal Development Officer at Chintoor.

The IMD named Kakinada, Anakapalli, Visakhapatnam, Konaseema and East Godavari among the districts most likely to face strong winds and heavy rain, IANS reported. Sakshi Post reported red alerts on Tuesday for Kakinada, Konaseema, East Godavari, West Godavari, Eluru and Yanam, widening on Wednesday to Visakhapatnam, Alluri Sitharama Raju, Anakapalli, NTR, Krishna, Guntur and Bapatla, with a storm surge of one to 1.5 metres possible near Kakinada and Yanam.

In Odisha, Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi said the government had reviewed the likely impact and given each department specific responsibilities. The state has cancelled leave for disaster personnel and placed 225 rescue teams on alert in vulnerable districts, Open Magazine reported, with 20 Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force teams already deployed and 60 more to follow in three phases.

Manorama Mohanty, director of the Bhubaneswar meteorological centre, said southern Odisha could expect extremely heavy rain and gusty winds, the magazine reported.

Further south, mechanised boats stayed in port at Thoothukudi in Tamil Nadu on Monday after a cyclone warning for the district, Business Standard reported. The regional weather centre in Chennai issued an orange alert for Pudukottai, Sivaganga and Ramanathapuram, according to DT Next.

The last cyclone to cross this coast was Montha, which came ashore near Narsapur late on 28 October last year as a severe cyclonic storm, with the IMD recording sustained winds of 90-100 km/h and gusts of 110 km/h, The Wire reported at the time. Arnab is forecast to arrive one category stronger.

The IMD's next scheduled milestones are the storm's expected upgrade to severe by midnight on Monday and to very severe on Tuesday, before the forecast crossing on Wednesday forenoon. Fishermen along the Andhra coast have been told to stay ashore through Wednesday.