ABU DHABI — The UAE faces a hotter and wetter winter than usual, the National Centre of Meteorology said on Sunday, putting the probability that El Niño conditions persist from November through March 2027 at 96 per cent.

Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the central Pacific were 2.3C above the long-term average, the NCM said in its latest seasonal outlook, reported by Gulf News. Climate models point to a peak in October and November with an anomaly of about 3.0C, which the centre describes as a very strong El Niño, according to Gulf Today.

The outlook matters for a country still rebuilding after the April 2024 storm, when 254mm of rain fell in less than 24 hours at Khatm Al Shakla in Al Ain, the heaviest since records began in 1949, and floodwater closed roads, schools and parts of Dubai International Airport. The NCM was careful on Sunday to say that heavy rain or flooding is not a certainty.

El Niño is a natural warming of the eastern and central tropical Pacific that shifts weather patterns around the world. Its influence on the UAE is indirect, the NCM has said repeatedly, and depends on whether suitable atmospheric conditions develop over the Arabian Peninsula.

The centre expects both temperatures and rainfall to exceed seasonal averages, with the strongest effects toward the later part of the forecast period, Gulf News reported. Pacific indicators suggest the El Niño event itself will last until February 2027, with its effects on the UAE extending into April, according to Gulf Today and Emirates 24|7.

The intensity and distribution of any rain will depend on regional weather systems, the NCM said. The outlook follows a period of La Niña, when the equatorial Pacific was cooler than average.

NCM meteorologist Ahmed Habib struck a similar note last month. "Some models indicate that rainfall will be higher than average in the coming months," he told Khaleej Times. "But nobody can give the exact amount with certainty."

Habib said residents should not read the forecast as a warning of extreme storms directly linked to El Niño. "Where [extreme weather happens], nobody knows right now," he said, adding that local pressure systems, moisture and temperatures decide whether rain-producing conditions form.

The centre has spent weeks countering social media posts that linked El Niño to catastrophic floods. In a clarification issued on September 11, it called this year's event an indicator of beneficial rainfall and urged the public to rely only on official forecasts and warnings.

The forecast arrived in the middle of an unsettled stretch of weather. Parts of the country have had rain for several days, with the temperature reaching 41.6C in Sweihan near Al Ain on Saturday afternoon, Khaleej Times reported. Rain was falling in Fujairah and Al Ain early on Monday, with fog expected overnight in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, according to Emirates 24|7.

The General Civil Aviation Authority warned on Saturday that changing weather and reduced visibility could delay flights at airports nationwide. Any disruption would be "managed in accordance with strict safety protocols," the GCAA said, according to The National, and airlines and airport operators had put measures in place under existing procedures.

Fog is a routine hazard at this time of year. The UAE has averaged 132 days of fog formation a year since records began in 2006, The National reported, and authorities in Abu Dhabi have already cut speed limits to 80km/h on some roads during heavy fog this month, while Dubai issued poor-visibility warnings to drivers.

The wetter outlook also follows an appeal from the top. President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed called on worshippers to perform Salaat Al Istisqaa, the prayer for rain, at mosques across the country half an hour before Friday prayers on October 9, Khaleej Times reported.

For Monday, the NCM forecast fair to partly cloudy skies, with convective clouds over eastern and southern areas in the afternoon that could bring more rain. Winds of 10 to 25km/h could gust to 45km/h and raise blowing dust, and humid conditions overnight could produce fog or mist in coastal areas on Tuesday morning, according to Gulf Today.

The NCM has said any significant weather system will be announced in advance through official channels. Its outlook points to the heaviest El Niño-linked activity late in the window, which would place the greatest risk of intense rain in February and March.