WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump's job approval has fallen to 33 percent, the lowest reading in the history of the Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll, according to results released on Sunday, 16 days before the midterm elections. Sixty-six percent of Americans disapprove of his performance, and 52 percent disapprove strongly.

The same survey gives Democrats an eight-point lead among likely voters in the contest for control of the House, 52 percent to 44 percent.

The numbers matter because Republicans are defending narrow majorities in both chambers on Nov. 3, and midterm elections tend to turn on views of the sitting president. "Trump's weak approval ratings do not bode well for his party given that midterms are often a referendum vote on the president," ABC News wrote in its analysis of the data.

Ipsos conducted the poll online from Oct. 9 to Oct. 13 among 2,545 adults, including 2,032 registered and likely voters, using its probability-based KnowledgePanel. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 points overall and 2.2 points among voters.

The 33 percent figure is four points lower than in July and eight points below a year ago, according to a report by LiveNOW from FOX. The previous low in the series, 38 percent, came in the days after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Approval is somewhat higher among those most likely to cast ballots. Among registered voters, 37 percent approve and 63 percent disapprove. Among likely voters, the split is 38 percent to 62 percent.

The erosion is sharpest among independents, 22 percent of whom approve of the president, against 76 percent who disapprove. Among Republicans, 79 percent approve, down from 88 percent early in his second term, and the share who strongly approve has fallen to 39 percent from 63 percent in February 2025.

Cost of living dominates the findings. Only 21 percent of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the cost of living, and 23 percent approve of his handling of inflation. Approval on the economy stands at 28 percent, down from 33 percent in July and 41 percent in February.

Seventy-one percent of respondents now call gasoline unaffordable, up from 28 percent in February. Sixty percent say the same of groceries and 65 percent of health care. Three-quarters rate the economy negatively, and 72 percent say the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Immigration remains the president's strongest issue, with 38 percent approving and 61 percent disapproving, though 56 percent say he is going too far in deporting undocumented immigrants. Sixty-five percent say the use of U.S. military force against Iran was a mistake.

The poll also found that 66 percent of Americans believe Trump is using the presidency to enrich himself. Eight in 10 called his push to put his name on the Kennedy Center inappropriate, and 74 percent said the same of federal payment for television advertisements promoting the president and his policies.

On the congressional ballot, independents who are likely to vote favor Democrats by 56 percent to 35 percent. Voters who view both parties unfavorably, roughly one in five of the electorate, break for Democrats 58 percent to 32 percent.

The survey points to a possible gap in turnout. Seventy-two percent of Democrats say they are absolutely certain to vote, compared with 65 percent of Republicans. Those planning to vote early or by mail, about three in 10 likely voters, favor Democrats by 26 points, while those who intend to vote in person on Election Day favor Republicans by 11.

ABC noted that its fall 2022 poll showed a near-even House race before Republicans won the chamber, and that its fall 2018 poll gave Democrats an 11-point lead among registered voters before they took the House. The current eight-point lead among registered voters is up from three points in a Post-Ipsos poll in July.

Americans trust Democrats over Republicans on 10 of 12 issues tested, led by health care, where the Democratic advantage is 23 points. Republicans hold a five-point edge on crime. Neither party is popular: 44 percent view the Democratic Party favorably, against 35 percent for the Republican Party.

Fifty-nine percent of Americans say they would prefer Democrats to control the next Congress as a check on Trump, while 35 percent prefer Republican control to support his agenda, according to ABC.

The findings line up with other recent surveys. An NBC News poll released the same day put Trump's approval at 34 percent, and the polling analyst Nate Silver's average of major surveys stood at 37.5 percent, Mediaite reported. On Friday, the Cook Political Report moved 11 more House races toward Democrats, 10 of them in states Trump carried in 2024.

Trump has dismissed unfavorable polling in the past and has urged supporters this fall to "pretend that I'm on the ballot," according to the FOX report. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, where Democrats would need to flip seats in states Trump won by double digits in 2024 while holding Georgia and Michigan.

Early voting opens in Texas on Monday, and all 435 House seats and a third of the Senate will be decided on Nov. 3.